Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
